The 15th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum, organized by China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network (CCFEI) and Tecnon OrbiChem, is held at 9:00 a.m., 12 Jul, 2018 in Holiday Inn Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai, China, with Yufeng Chemical Fiber Machinery as the sponsor. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and also provide us great supports. Around 500 participants from leading players from home and overseas, including BP, Broad Group, China Resources, CNOOC, Guxiandao, Far Eastern Industry, Future Petrochemical, Hengli, Hengyi Petrochemical, Honam Petrochemical, ITG Holding, PetroChina, Reliance, Rongsheng, Sabic, Sanfangxiang, Sinochem, Sinopec, Tongkun, Xiangyu, Xinfengming, Yisheng Petrochemical, Zhajiang Wankai, etc., are gathering to exchange ideas about the polyester chain.

The morning session of first day starts with Roger Lee, Managing Director, Tecnon OrbiChem, as the Chairman, giving the opening speech.

Year-to-date, China had been cautiously exercising economic policies to ensure steady growth and minimize risks. On the other hand, the world was watching tax reform and trading barriers set by the US, which caused commodity stock market fluctuating. With crude oil futures listed and suppliers limiting production, crude oil values kept marching north? Will downstream markets be able to absorb increasing supply from new polyester capacities?

Wang Jun, General Manager of Shanghai, Jinrui Futures presents the first speech of morning session, focusing on the mostly concerned Sino-US Trade War. Mr. Wang talks about the targets, outlook and influences of Trade War, and pointed out that US is unwilling to see USD appreciation, and deflation, and feels his position threatened by China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Ternary Patterns of International Oil Prices
Li Zhan, World Crude Oil Price Analyst from SINOPEC makes an analysis on crude oil market cycles, referring to industry, politic and market factors, and talks about key factors nowadays behind crude oil price changes. He also shares his opinion about crude oil market future based on the outlook of technology, fundamental and capital performance.

After the coffee break, Jason Miner, ‎Senior Analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence contributes his speech titled Polyester Demand Support across Key Regions, Markets. Bloomberg connects decision makers to a dynamic network of data, people and ideas – delivering business and financial information, news and insights around the world. Bloomberg Professional service is the most powerful, flexible platform for financial professionals who need real-time data, news, analytics.

Yang Qianli, General Manager of Shanghai Yijing Industrial talks about Development of Syngas-based (Coal-derived) MEG and Perspective on Future Market. With a few coal-based domestic ethylene capacities started up this year, coal-based ethylene saw market share expanding sharply in China. Yang believes that in near future, newly added ethylene capacity will mainly be coal-based, before the huge capacity of crude oil based ethylene in North America and Mid East come into commercial operation in H2 2019. Since ethylene supply gap is expected to remain till cargoes are available from those new capacities, before then ethylene prices will hold high, promising sound margin of coal-based ethylene.

.Francesco Zanchi, CEO of Global Service International S.R.L comes with the speech titled PET Packaging Resin in 2018 - Rising Above the Tumult. He points to that: 1. PET Raw Materials are facing a unique moment of Surplus on paper and shortage in Reality. This is pushing up the prices and making difficult to receive material on call; 2. China block on the waste import is boosting the internal local demand of virgin PET pushing up prices and utilization rate. EU is starting to push for Circular Economy within 2025; 3. 2018 will be a year of Duty Fight between mayor countries, provoked by USA protectionism; 4. 2018 will be a year of changes in the trade flow of PET. Better to be ready to fast homologations for new materials from different sources.

After lunch follows the PTA Session, with Guo Xiangming, Business Manager of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange as the Chairman.

Du Qunlong, AP Regional Director of INVISTA Performance Technologies introduces INVISTA Performance Technologies and Its Latest PTA Technology. P8 is industry leading technology in terms of OPEX, CAPEX, Product Quality, Environmental Footprint, Safety & Reliability. License of the second P8 capacity is awarded to Hengli Petrochemical this year. It is expected to help Hengli minimize its variable costs.

Tang Guojing, Deputy General Manager of Huatai Great Wall Capital Management talks about Application of Risk Management of OTC Option. Mr. Tang gained his Doctor degree from University of Maryland, and had worked for Lehman Brothers, British Gas, Royal Bank of Scotland and Morgan Stanley. Focusing on the new highlight of OTC option, Mr. Tang shares many practices of option management, and recommends some PTA-crude oil hedging options.

We move on to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Session:

Chen Lixin, Assistant Manager of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange introduces Continuous Activity of PTA and Thermal Coal Contracts in ZCE

Qi Mingzhi, Leader of Chemical Group, Horizon Insights makes PTA Sentiment Analysis and Trading Strategy under Low Fluctuation. According to Qi, PTA market is at a relevantly quiet stage, and is unlikely to see significantly capacity increase within one year compared with polyester and paraxylene. Margin of the polyester chain will mainly concentrate on the PTA-PX spread. He predict that in the following one or two quarters, overseas textile market will enter a stage of de-stocking, while domestic market will greet seasonal lull. Qi also gives his advices in futures operation. His speech also covers possible impact from the 10% tariff increase posed by the US on China-origin goods.

Guo Xiangming from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange makes Introduction about the Scheme to Bring Overseas Trading Participants into Domestic PTA Futures Market

Xu Zhilong, Senior Investment Counselor of DH Fund Management talks about Strategies of PTA Futures Transaction in a Bull Market. Based on the argue that PTA market is now in a bullish tone, Xu advices that investors take long position of futures, and may take in some stocks when stock prices are very low. He also points out that polyester futures and bonds should take a priority compared with PTA, given better performance of listed polyester enterprises.

After coffee break comes the Panel Discussion. The discussion mainly focuses on how PTA futures support domestic real economy and overseas enterprises, prediction of short-term PTA market trends, highlights with overseas demand, etc. Sun Hong, Vice President of Hengli Petrochemical, Wang Guangqian, Analyst of Dongwu Futures, Frederic VAN HOUTE, Director General of CIRFS, Francesco Zanchi, CEO of Global Service International S.R.L and Tang Guojing, Deputy General Manager of Huatai Great Wall, all contributed their valuable opinions.